Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, falling 49 points (-0.56%), after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker US market sentiment weighed on global equities.
• US markets closed mixed, with the S&P 500 declining 0.28%, the Dow Jones falling 1.09%, while the Nasdaq edged 0.20% higher as Nvidia and Broadcom supported technology stocks.
• Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance, with WTI crude oil surging 6.25% to US$74.76/bbl, while copper fell 1.72% to US$6.07/lb and gold declined 0.74% to US$4,075.28/oz.
• Nvidia and Broadcom remained in focus after gaining 3.6% and 4.8%, respectively, helping support the technology sector, while investors also assessed the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes and renewed US-Iran tensions.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly weaker performance as selling pressure weighed across most major developed and Asian markets. The Dow Jones led the decliners, falling 1.09% to 52,348.00, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.28% to 7,483.00. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.20% higher to 25,871.00, outperforming its US peers. European markets weakened, with the FTSE 100 declining 1.66%, while Canada's S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.95%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 2.11%. Meanwhile, India's benchmark index declined 2.15%, marking the weakest performance among the major indices, while New Zealand's NZX 50 gained 0.12%, showing modest resilience amid the broader market weakness.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight. WTI crude oil surged 6.25% amid stronger energy market sentiment, while uranium edged 0.11% higher, reflecting stable conditions across the nuclear fuel market. Gold declined 0.74%, indicating softer safe-haven demand, while copper fell 1.72% on weaker sentiment toward industrial metals. Silver also weakened, dropping 4.22%, reflecting broad selling across precious metals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin declined 2.00% as investors reduced exposure to risk assets.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields moved higher as investors continued to assess the outlook for interest rates amid expectations that major central banks will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Australia's 10-year government bond yield rose 0.041 bps to 4.926%, reflecting expectations of elevated domestic borrowing costs. Japan's 10-year government bond yield was unchanged at 2.875%, remaining elevated amid expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. US Treasury yields also advanced, with the 10-year yield rising 0.015 bps to 4.582% and the 30-year yield gaining 0.014 bps to 5.078%, indicating that investors continue to expect borrowing costs to remain elevated over the longer term.Key Drivers

• US markets finished mixed, with the S&P 500 declining 0.28% and the Dow Jones falling 1.09%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.20% as strength in Nvidia and Broadcom helped offset broader market weakness.
• Oil prices surged after President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire was over and fresh US military strikes reignited Middle East tensions, driving renewed concerns over global energy supplies.
• Federal Reserve June meeting minutes revealed policymakers remained divided on the interest rate outlook, with the updated dot plot continuing to indicate the possibility of a 2026 rate hike.
• Treasury yields moved higher as rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks reinforced inflation concerns, supporting expectations that interest rates could remain elevated.
• Broadcom jumped 4.8% after Apple expanded its chip supply agreement through 2031, while Nvidia rose 3.6% on reports that Chinese firms plan to increase purchases of its H200 AI accelerators.
• The IMF warned that progress on inflation has stalled, forecasting global consumer prices to rise 4.7% in 2026 while lowering its global growth forecast to 3.0%.
• The US revoked Iran's crude oil sales waiver, while Iran-related shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep investors focused on energy security and global trade risks.
• The US dollar strengthened on renewed safe-haven demand as geopolitical uncertainty intensified, while investors continued rotating away from semiconductor leaders toward cheaper technology stocks.

ASX Company News

• Fletcher Building Limited (ASX: FBU): Fletcher Building upgraded its FY2026 EBIT guidance to between NZ$400 million and NZ$403 million, including approximately NZ$52 million from surplus property sales, reflecting stronger-than-expected operating performance across its core businesses. Excluding property sales, continuing operations are expected to deliver EBIT of between NZ$348 million and NZ$351 million, supported by favourable raw material procurement, improved manufacturing productivity, stronger demand across the Iplex businesses in New Zealand and Australia, and resilient activity within the Heavy Building Materials division. The company also highlighted improved volumes across its manufacturing and distribution operations during the June quarter, while cautioning that ongoing input cost uncertainty and delays or cancellations of new commercial construction projects could weigh on trading conditions during the first half of FY2027.
• Alkane Resources Limited (ASX: ALK): Alkane reported strong near-mine exploration results from its Björkdal Gold Mine in Sweden, completing 29 extension and infill drill holes across the Eastern and Northern extensions. The program confirmed high-grade gold mineralisation, including intercepts of 86.1 g/t gold over 1.25 metres, 81.3 g/t gold over 4.40 metres and 31.5 g/t gold over 0.85 metres, while extending the known mineralised system to a record depth of 762 metres below surface. The drilling enhanced confidence in vein geometry and structural continuity, supporting future Mineral Resource growth and mine-life extension. With mineralisation remaining open at depth and along strike, Alkane plans further staged infill and step-out drilling during FY27 to expand resources and strengthen the long-term production outlook at Björkdal.
• Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL): Catalyst Metals implemented a short-term gold price protection strategy by entering into forward contracts covering 30,000 ounces of gold at a fixed price of AU$6,075 per ounce, with deliveries scheduled evenly over 15 months from August 2026 at 2,000 ounces per month. The contracts represent approximately 2% of the company’s Ore Reserves and around one quarter of forecast production, providing downside protection against gold price volatility while preserving exposure to higher gold prices through the majority of its production. The company stated that the hedging program is designed to enhance revenue certainty, support operational stability and provide flexibility to deliver into contracts earlier should market conditions weaken, while indicating that similar short-term price protection arrangements may be adopted periodically as part of its broader risk management strategy.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• Venus Metals (ASX: VMC) – $0.047

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• China CPI (11:30 am AEST): Provides an update on inflation trends in China and offers insights into consumer demand and the outlook for commodity markets.
• Energy & Resource Stocks: Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are expected to support energy-related shares, while gold, copper and uranium stocks may remain under pressure after recent weakness.
• ASX IPOs: Aura Consolidated (AXO), FDC Consolidated (FDC) and Tetragon Energy (TET) are scheduled to debut, with investors watching for early trading sentiment in new listings.
• IMF Global Outlook: Investors will continue to assess the IMF's downgraded 2026 global growth forecast and higher inflation projections for their implications on monetary policy and financial markets.

Summary 

•  ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker start as renewed Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and persistent inflation concerns weighed on global market sentiment.
• WTI crude oil surged 6.25% after renewed geopolitical tensions disrupted the outlook for Middle East energy supplies, while gold, copper and silver declined as commodity markets remained volatile.
• Nvidia and Broadcom outperformed the broader market, helping the Nasdaq close higher despite weakness across most major US equity indices and continued selling in risk assets.
• Bitcoin fell 2.00% as investors reduced exposure to higher-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty and rising market volatility.
• Higher global bond yields and the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain elevated, keeping monetary policy firmly in focus.
• China's CPI release will be closely watched for fresh signals on inflation and consumer demand, while investors will also monitor new ASX listings and developments in global energy markets.

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