Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a slightly positive open, rising 8 points (+0.09%), following another strong finish on Wall Street.
• US markets closed higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.79%, the Nasdaq rising 1.52%, and the Dow Jones reaching a fresh record close.
• The Japanese yen weakened to its lowest level in nearly 40 years against the US dollar, increasing speculation of possible currency intervention.
• South32 attracted strong investor attention after announcing the proposed sale of its aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa for up to US$5.60 billion, completing its CEO transition, and approving the Sierra Gorda processing expansion project.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly positive performance, supported by strong momentum across US technology and semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising 1.52% to 26,214.00, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.79% to 7,499.00 and the Dow Jones added 0.26% to 52,319.00, closing at a fresh record high. European markets remained steady, with the FTSE 100 gaining 0.12%. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.10%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.86%. However, India’s benchmark index declined 0.33%, showing selective weakness across Asian markets. New Zealand's NZX 50 climbed 0.56%, extending gains amid broad market strength and improving investor confidence. Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight. Copper gained 1.50% on optimism surrounding industrial demand and stronger manufacturing data from China, while silver advanced 0.91%, supported by improved investor sentiment toward precious metals. Gold remained largely unchanged, slipping just 0.05%. WTI crude oil declined 1.12% after shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz normalised and concerns over near-term supply disruptions eased. Uranium prices also weakened, falling 1.68%, reflecting softer sentiment across the nuclear fuel market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 2.70% as investors reduced exposure to risk assets.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for interest rates following resilient economic data and expectations that major central banks may maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Australian and US Treasury yields rose, reflecting reduced expectations for near-term policy easing and continued concerns over inflation. The increase in longer-dated US Treasury yields also indicated that investors expect borrowing costs to remain elevated for an extended period. Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield remained elevated at 2.687%, supported by expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.Key Drivers

• US investors rotated away from defensive sectors, with Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate all falling over 1%, while technology and semiconductor shares continued to outperform.
• The US dollar strengthened broadly, pushing the yen close to a 40-year low and increasing speculation around Japanese currency intervention.
• US JOLTS job openings stayed near 7.60 million in May, beating expectations and signalling resilient labour demand.
• China’s manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in June, suggesting continued expansion in factory activity.
• Oil prices softened as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz resumed and supply disruption risks eased.
• Mega-cap technology stocks remained under pressure in June, with the Mag-7 losing around US$2.30 trillion in market value.
• Concerns around stretched valuations, AI-related capital spending and sharp market swings continued to fuel bubble-risk discussions.

ASX Company News

• South32 Limited (ASX: S32): South32 agreed to sell its aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa for an implied enterprise value of up to US$5.60 billion, including US$3.10 billion in cash, US$1.00 billion in Alcoa shares, assumed debt and contingent payments. Alcoa will also assume around US$1.20 billion in rehabilitation liabilities. The transaction will reposition South32 as a simplified, upstream base metals company focused on copper, zinc, silver, lead and manganese, with growth supported by the Hermosa Taylor project and the approved Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line expansion. South32 expects annual overhead savings of around US$125 million, improved financial flexibility and an initial shareholder return of approximately US$500 million through a fully franked special dividend. The company also completed its CEO transition, with Matthew Daley assuming the role of Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director.
• Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND): Monadelphous secured more than AU$200.00 million in new construction and maintenance contracts across the resources and energy sectors. The awards include contracts with Fortescue, Santos and Synergy, covering wind farm construction, maintenance services, upstream operations and power station support.
• IperionX Limited (ASX: IPX): IperionX received funding of up to US$6.60 million under a US Department of War program to expand domestic titanium manufacturing for defence applications. The company also secured a US Army purchase order to produce prototype titanium fasteners for the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) program.
• Objective Corporation Limited (ASX: OCL): announced that the Australian Department of Defence did not renew its long-standing Upgrade and Support Program (USP) agreement, ending a partnership that has been in place for more than 25 years. The company said the decision will have no impact on FY26 revenue or earnings, although FY26 Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is now expected to remain broadly in line with FY25 on a constant currency basis. Objective reaffirmed its commitment to investing in sovereign defence and national security software solutions while continuing to support future opportunities with the Department of Defence.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• GrainCorp Limited (ASX: GNC): AU$0.14 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Australia Ai Group Industry Index (9:00 am AEST): Indicates industrial activity and business conditions.
• Australia Building Permits (11:30 am AEST): Reflects trends in construction and housing activity.
• China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (11:45 am AEST): Measures manufacturing strength and signals commodity demand.
• Eurozone Inflation (7:00 pm AEST): May influence the ECB's interest rate outlook.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speech (11:00 pm AEST): Investors will watch for US monetary policy signals.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (12:00 am AEST): Key indicator of US manufacturing activity and economic momentum.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a mildly positive start, supported by overnight gains across US indices.
• China's manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory, supporting the outlook for industrial activity.
• Copper-linked stocks may see improved sentiment after copper prices rose 1.50% overnight.
• Uranium and Bitcoin prices declined, reflecting softer sentiment across the nuclear fuel market and reduced investor appetite for higher-risk assets.
• Oil-related stocks may trade cautiously after WTI crude declined as Hormuz-related supply concerns eased.
• Rising US bond yields and stronger labour market data may keep investors focused on central bank commentary.
• Currency volatility, especially the weak yen, remains an important macro risk for global markets.

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