Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, falling 8 points (-0.09%), after renewed US-Iran tensions triggered broad-based selling across Wall Street and weighed heavily on technology shares.
• US markets closed lower, with the Nasdaq falling 1.55%, the S&P 500 declining 0.79% and the Dow Jones easing 0.26% as semiconductor stocks retreated and investors shifted toward defensive assets.
• Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance, with WTI crude oil surging 9.15% to US$78.00/bbl on escalating Middle East tensions, while gold dropped 2.83% to US$4,004.28/oz and copper edged 0.10% lower to US$6.23/lb.
• TSMC remained in focus after reporting record second-quarter revenue growth of 36% year-on-year on robust AI chip demand, while Citi lifted its Apple price target to US$365 and SK Hynix's US-listed shares tumbled 9% following Friday's blockbuster Nasdaq debut.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly weaker performance as selling pressure weighed on major US and Asian equity markets. The Nasdaq Composite led the decliners, falling 1.55% to 25,873.00, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.79% to 7,515.00 and the Dow Jones eased 0.26% to 52,499.00. European markets were broadly flat, with the FTSE 100 edging 0.01% higher. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite slipped 0.15%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell sharply by 1.92%, marking the weakest performance among the major regional indices. Meanwhile, India's benchmark index edged 0.06% higher, showing resilience amid broader market weakness, while New Zealand's NZX 50 declined 0.30%, reflecting softer investor sentiment.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight. WTI crude oil surged 9.15% amid strong buying interest across energy markets, while copper remained largely unchanged, slipping just 0.10% on softer industrial metals sentiment. Gold declined 2.83%, reflecting weaker safe-haven demand, while silver fell 2.15%, indicating broad weakness across precious metals. Uranium prices also weakened sharply, declining 6.09%, reflecting softer sentiment across the nuclear fuel market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 2.73% as investors reduced exposure to risk assets.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields moved higher as investors continued to assess the outlook for interest rates amid expectations that major central banks will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Australia's 10-year government bond yield rose 0.040 bps to 4.912%, reflecting expectations of elevated domestic borrowing costs. Japan's 10-year government bond yield was unchanged at 2.780%, remaining elevated amid expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. US Treasury yields also advanced, with the 10-year yield rising 0.010 bps to 4.620% and the 30-year yield gaining 0.009 bps to 5.107%, indicating that investors continue to expect borrowing costs to remain elevated over the longer term.Key Drivers

• Wall Street closed broadly lower as renewed US-Iran tensions and a sharp semiconductor sell-off weighed on investor sentiment, with the Nasdaq falling 1.55%, the S&P 500 declining 0.79% and the Dow Jones easing 0.26%.
• Energy stocks outperformed as WTI crude oil surged 9.15% to US$78.00 per barrel, while Brent climbed above US$83 a barrel, after President Trump reinstated the Strait of Hormuz blockade and proposed a 20% levy on cargo using the waterway.
• Semiconductor shares remained under heavy pressure, with Nvidia falling 3.5%, Intel dropping 6.1%, Micron declining 4.3% and AMD losing 4.2%, while South Korea's KOSPI plunged 8.9% as SK Hynix and Samsung both tumbled more than 10%.
• Defensive sectors outperformed in the US, with Energy (+3.16%), Utilities (+0.67%) and Financials (+0.61%) leading gains, while Information Technology fell 2.07% as investors rotated away from AI-linked growth stocks.
• Precious metals weakened despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with gold falling 2.83% to US$4,004.28/oz, while mining-related ETFs came under pressure, including uranium (-5.24%), strategic metals (-4.38%) and semiconductor ETFs (-4.77%).
• Investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East after Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US bases, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply, and Dubai announced plans for a new east coast port to bypass the strategic waterway.
• Attention now turns to key macroeconomic events, including the release of US June CPI, while markets also await Australia's July consumer sentiment survey and China's June trade data for fresh signals on global growth and inflation.
• Treasury yields continued to climb amid inflation concerns, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.61%, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that stronger-than-expected inflation could warrant further interest rate increases.

ASX Company News

• West African Resources Limited (ASX: WAF): West African Resources reported further high-grade drilling success at the M5 deposit within its Sanbrado Gold Operations in Burkina Faso, with diamond drilling intersecting 27 metres at 6.7 g/t gold approximately 200 metres below the current M5 South underground Ore Reserve. The latest drilling program confirmed the continuity of high-grade mineralisation beneath the existing reserve, supporting the potential for further Ore Reserve growth. Resource conversion drilling remains on schedule, while infill drilling also returned strong intersections including 29 metres at 16.4 g/t gold and 39 metres at 5.0 g/t gold. At M5 North, drilling continued to confirm broad mineralised zones, with results expected to support future open-pit optimisation and an updated Mineral Resource, Ore Reserve and 10-year production outlook planned for Q1 2027.
• Ora Banda Mining Limited (ASX: OBM): Ora Banda Mining announced a significant expansion of the Davyhurst Gold Project inventory, increasing total Mineral Resources by 75% to 3.69 million ounces and Ore Reserves by 159% to 610,000 ounces as at 1 April 2026. The update was driven by substantial resource growth at Round Dam, Waihi, Riverina and Sand King, with Round Dam delivering a maiden 1.33 million-ounce Mineral Resource and a maiden 223,000-ounce Ore Reserve. The enlarged reserve base now comprises five principal mining sources, providing greater production flexibility and extending mine life across the operation. Following approximately AU$75 million invested in drilling during FY26, the company plans a further 340,000 metres of exploration and resource definition drilling in FY27 to support continued resource conversion, reserve growth and future development opportunities across the Davyhurst Gold Project.
•  Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU): Vault Minerals has entered into a binding merger agreement with Genesis Minerals that will create a new Australian gold major with a pro-forma market capitalisation of approximately AU$12.6 billion, positioning the combined group as Australia's third-largest listed gold producer. The merged company is expected to produce around 600,000–700,000 ounces of gold annually from operations entirely based in Western Australia, supported by 33.6 million ounces of Mineral Resources and 9.4 million ounces of Ore Reserves. The transaction is expected to unlock around AU$2.0 billion in post-tax synergy potential through the consolidation of complementary assets in the Leonora-Laverton region, improved processing efficiencies, infrastructure optimisation and corporate savings. The enlarged group will also benefit from approximately AU$611 million in pro-forma net cash and bullion, strengthening its financial flexibility while providing shareholders with enhanced scale, liquidity, operational diversification and a stronger long-term growth platform.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• Metcash (ASX: MTS) – $0.095
• Whitefield Income (ASX: WHI) – $0.006

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

•  Westpac Consumer Confidence (10:30 am AEST): Measures Australian household confidence and provides an early indication of consumer spending intentions and the broader economic outlook.
• NAB Business Confidence (11:30 am AEST): Offers insight into business sentiment and operating conditions, helping gauge investment activity and the strength of the domestic economy.
• China Balance of Trade (1:00 pm AEST): Tracks China's exports and imports, providing an important indicator of global trade demand and potential implications for Australia's resource sector.
• US Consumer Price Index (10:30 pm AEST): A key measure of inflation that will shape expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader market sentiment.
• US Fed Chair Warsh Testimony (12:00 am AEST): Investors will closely monitor comments on inflation, interest rates and the economic outlook for signals on the Federal Reserve's policy direction.

Summary 

• ASX 200 set for a weaker opening after renewed US-Iran tensions triggered a broad sell-off across Wall Street, with technology shares leading the decline.
• WTI crude oil surged 9.15% to US$78.00 per barrel as escalating Middle East tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while gold, silver, uranium and Bitcoin all declined sharply amid heightened market volatility.
• Semiconductor stocks remained under heavy pressure, with Nvidia, Intel, Micron and AMD posting steep losses, while South Korea's KOSPI plunged 8.9% after SK Hynix and Samsung both fell more than 10%.
• Investors will closely monitor Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence data, alongside China's trade figures, US June CPI and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony for fresh signals on inflation and interest rate expectations.
• Treasury yields continued to rise as markets priced in persistent inflation risks, with the US 10-year yield climbing to 4.61% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that stronger-than-expected inflation could warrant further interest rate increases.
• •Energy stocks outperformed the broader market as higher crude oil prices supported the sector, while defensive sectors also attracted buying interest as investors rotated away from AI-linked growth stocks.

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