Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive open, rising 50 points (+0.55%), following another solid session on Wall Street led by gains in the Dow Jones.
• US markets ended on a mixed note, with the Dow Jones gaining 1.14% to a fresh record high, the S&P 500 closing flat, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.80% amid weakness in technology stocks.
• Nvidia remained in focus after retreating on SoftBank-related selling pressure, while AMD highlighted expectations for annual revenue growth of more than 35% over the next three to five years, reinforcing the long-term outlook for AI-driven data centre demand.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight, with gains in the US, Europe and parts of Asia offset by weakness in technology and Japanese equities. The Dow Jones outperformed major US indices, rising 1.14% to 52,900.00, while the S&P 500 was unchanged at 7,483.00. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.80% to 25,833.00, reflecting weakness in technology stocks. European markets strengthened, with the FTSE 100 climbing 1.67%, while Canada's S&P/TSX Composite advanced 0.31%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell sharply by 2.47%, making it the weakest-performing major index. India's benchmark index gained 0.75%, supported by resilient domestic sentiment, while New Zealand's NZX 50 edged 0.03% lower, indicating subdued market activity.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a broadly positive performance overnight, led by strong gains in precious metals. Gold surged 2.32% to US$4,124.7/oz, reflecting increased safe-haven demand, while silver advanced 1.64% to US$61.50/oz on improved investor sentiment toward precious metals. Uranium prices also strengthened, rising 0.82% to US$5,720.71, indicating renewed interest in the nuclear fuel market. WTI crude oil edged 0.11% lower to US$68.46/bbl, suggesting relatively stable energy market conditions, while copper slipped 0.05% to US$6.1/lb, reflecting subdued industrial demand expectations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin gained 1.73% to US$61,456.00, supported by renewed buying interest in digital assets.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields were mixed as investors continued to assess the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Australia's 10-year government bond yield edged 0.002 bps higher to 4.829%, indicating expectations that domestic interest rates could remain elevated. Japan's 10-year government bond yield was unchanged at 2.782%, remaining near multi-year highs amid expectations of continued policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.009 bps to 4.469%, suggesting slightly lower expectations for long-term interest rates, while the US 30-year Treasury yield increased 0.004 bps to 4.985%, indicating that investors continue to expect borrowing costs to remain elevated over the longer term.Key Drivers

• US investors rotated into value and defensive sectors, with Health Care (+2.70%), Consumer Staples (+2.41%), Utilities (+2.27%) and Materials (+2.08%) all rising more than 2%, while Information Technology fell 1.46%.
• US labour market data softened, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 57,000 in June versus 110,000 expected, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.2% from 4.3%.
• Carry-trade activity and a sharp decline in market volatility helped the US dollar rebound from September lows, while Japan's 30-year government bond auction attracted softer demand.
• Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations declined after the weak jobs print, with futures pricing less than a 50% chance of a September rate hike, down from around 67% before the payrolls report.
• Investors continued rotating from growth into value stocks in China as profit-taking emerged following the recent technology rally.
• Iran and the US concluded indirect talks focused on the Strait of Hormuz and financial relief, while five supertankers carrying 10 million barrels of Saudi oil exited Hormuz.
• Nvidia remained under pressure after a SoftBank-related share sale, contributing to weakness across the technology sector despite broader gains in the US equity market.

ASX Company News

• Meridian Energy Limited (ASX: MEZ): Meridian Energy received final approval from New Zealand’s Fast-track Panel to ease access restrictions on Lake Pūkaki hydro storage for a three-year period through to Winter 2028. The decision is expected to reduce dry-year electricity supply risk and associated price impacts while additional renewable generation capacity is developed. Meridian also committed to using the additional storage only during periods of heightened supply risk, with current lake levels indicating that less than half of the additional five metres of storage is expected to be utilised during 2026. The approval also authorises the permanent installation of rock armouring at Pūkaki Dam to improve resilience against wave erosion when operating the lake at lower levels.
• BPH Energy Limited (ASX: BPH): BPH Energy announced that Advent Energy, through its wholly owned subsidiary Asset Energy Pty Ltd, will appeal the Federal Court judgment relating to Petroleum Exploration Permit PEP11 to the Full Court of the Federal Court of Australia. BPH holds an indirect interest in PEP11 through its 35.81% investment in Advent Energy but is not a party to the legal proceedings. The company stated it will continue to update the market on material developments associated with the appeal. PEP11 covers approximately 4,649 square kilometres offshore New South Wales and is regarded by the joint venture as a prospective natural gas asset with the potential to contribute to forecast east coast gas supply requirements.
• PEXA Group Limited (ASX: PXA): PEXA responded to IPART’s draft recommendation proposing an approximately 20% reduction in PEXA Exchange’s regulated revenue requirement through lower transfer transaction fees, equivalent to an estimated AU$70 million revenue impact. The company emphasised that any pricing adjustment should be phased over four years to enable appropriate business management. The draft recommendations remain subject to public consultation, with any approved fee changes not expected to take effect before 1 July 2027 and applying through FY31, while PEXA’s existing CPI-linked fee cap will continue for FY27. PEXA confirmed it will actively participate throughout the consultation process and continue advocating on behalf of customers and the broader property settlement ecosystem.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• N/A

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Australia Household Spending (11:30 am AEST): Provides an indication of consumer demand and overall economic activity.
• China Caixin Services PMI (11:45 am AEST): Measures business activity in the services sector and offers insights into China's economic momentum.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (10:30 pm AEST): Tracks weekly unemployment benefit applications and provides a timely gauge of labour market conditions.
• US ISM Services PMI (12:00 am AEST): Key indicator of US services sector activity and broader economic growth prospects.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a stronger start, supported by gains in the Dow Jones despite continued weakness across US technology stocks.
• Defensive sectors outperformed overnight, while Nvidia remained under pressure and AMD reinforced the long-term outlook for AI-driven data centre demand.
• Gold, silver, uranium and Bitcoin advanced, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets and renewed investor interest in digital assets, while WTI crude oil and copper edged lower.
• Mixed global bond yields kept investors focused on the outlook for inflation, interest rates and central bank policy.
• Softer US labour market data strengthened expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve policy stance, while investors continued rotating from growth into value stocks.
• Australia’s Household Spending and China’s Caixin Services PMI will be closely watched for fresh signals on consumer demand and economic activity.
• Investors will also monitor US Initial Jobless Claims and the ISM Services PMI for further insights into labour market conditions and the strength of the US services sector.

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