Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a softer open: Futures declined by 37 points (-0.42%) as of 8:30 am AEST, pointing to cautious sentiment ahead of key macro triggers. 
• US equities retreat amid AI concerns: US equities declined, with major indices closing lower as concerns emerged around the AI sector.
• Geopolitical risks intensify energy outlook: Continued deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, adding to global inflationary concerns.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets exhibited a broadly negative trend, with US indices declining as weakness in technology stocks weighed on overall sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite led losses, reflecting pressure in growth-oriented sectors, while the Dow Jones showed relatively limited downside. The United Kingdom index recorded modest gains. Across the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and India both recorded declines, indicating subdued investor confidence. Meanwhile, Canada and New Zealand markets also moved lower, highlighting a cautious global risk environment.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets exhibited a broadly subdued tone. Gold and silver retreated, reflecting reduced demand for safe-haven assets, while copper prices weakened, indicating softer industrial sentiment. Uranium also saw a notable decline, indicating weakness in the segment.

In contrast, crude oil prices advanced significantly, supported by ongoing geopolitical disruptions and tightening supply conditions, reinforcing upside risks to inflation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded lower, suggesting a cautious stance among investors toward higher-risk assets.

Bond Yields

Global bond yields remained relatively stable with mixed movements across key regions. Australia’s 10-year yield edged higher, indicating slightly tighter financial conditions. Japan’s yield remained unchanged, reflecting continued policy stability. In the US, both 10-year and 30-year yields declined marginally, suggesting some easing in long-term rate expectations.

Key Drivers

• Energy supply concerns: Ongoing disruptions in tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with delays in normalization timelines, have tightened supply expectations and supported a strong rise in crude oil prices.
• Shift in OPEC dynamics: The UAE’s planned exit from OPEC marks a notable structural development, with potential implications for global oil supply coordination and pricing dynamics.
• Central bank outlook: The US Federal Reserve has begun its policy meeting, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the ECB and Bank of England are set to announce decisions later this week, with expectations of potential rate hikes due to rising energy-driven inflation.

Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend

• 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (ASX: TCF): Trading ex-dividend today with a payout of AU$0.05. 
• Acrow Limited (ASX: ACF): Trading ex-dividend today with a payout of AU$0.02. 
• Gryphon Capital Income Trust (ASX: GCI): Trading ex-dividend today with a payout of AU$0.01. 
• KKR Credit Income Fund (ASX: KKC): Trading ex-dividend today with a payout of AU$0.01. 
• Waterco Limited (ASX: WAT): Trading ex-dividend today with a payout of AU$0.07. 

ASX Company News

• Regis Healthcare Limited (ASX: REG): Announced the appointment of Andrew Kinkade as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective 20 July 2026. He brings over 20 years of experience across healthcare, aged care, and investment sectors, and will succeed Dr Linda Mellors. 
• Prospect Resources Limited (ASX: PSC): Reported further encouraging gold re-assay results from the Nyungu Central deposit at its Mumbezhi Copper Project in Zambia. The results confirm widespread gold mineralisation, which is expected to enhance project economics through by-product credits. An updated Mineral Resource Estimate is anticipated in Q2 2026, with Phase 3 drilling scheduled to commence in early May.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Australia CPI (11:30 am AEST): Inflation data will be closely monitored as it remains a key determinant of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s near-term policy direction.
• Major technology earnings: Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are scheduled for release tomorrow.
• Commodity movements: The divergence between stronger oil prices and weaker metals will be important to monitor.

Summary 

• The energy sector remains well-supported, driven by elevated crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical risks affecting global supply. 
• Ongoing central bank policy decisions remain a critical driver of market direction, with investors closely monitoring signals on interest rate trajectory. 
• Focus on companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings visibility, which are better positioned to navigate macroeconomic volatility.
• Commodity trends, particularly the divergence between oil and metals, are likely to shape sectoral performance and allocation strategies in the near term. 

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Disclosure: The information mentioned above has been sourced from the company reports and a third-party database, i.e. Koyfin. Investors are advised to use strict stop-loss to protect their investments in case of any unfavorable/uncertain market events. 

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