Market Alert : Macro Strategy Alert: Bank of Japan Tightening, US Inflation Cooling, and Cross-Commodity Impacts

Is Gold Set to Break Records Again as Rate-Cut Hopes Grow?

Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights:

  • Gold hovered near record levels as softer US inflation data strengthened expectations of further interest rate cuts.
  • At the time of writing, bullion was trading around US$4,335 an ounce and was up about 0.8% for the week.
  • Geopolitical tensions, including escalating developments in Venezuela, continued to support safe-haven demand for gold.

Bullion Holds Firm Near Historic Levels

Gold prices hovered close to record territory after fresh US inflation data strengthened expectations that interest rates could be cut further, boosting demand for the precious metal. At the time of writing, gold was trading near US$4,335 an ounce, positioning the metal for its second consecutive weekly gain.

The move followed data showing that core US inflation cooled more than expected, rising at its slowest pace since early 2021.

Inflation Data Fuels Rate-Cut Bets

The latest US consumer price figures reinforced the argument for looser monetary policy, even as economic signals remain mixed. Traders are currently pricing in roughly a 25% chance of an interest rate cut as early as January, reflecting growing confidence that borrowing costs could continue to fall.

However, the outlook remains uncertain. The recent inflation report was clouded by the impact of a prolonged government shutdown, which disrupted some data collection. Adding to the uncertainty, the US Federal Reserve, after delivering its third straight rate cut last week, has stopped short of clearly outlining how quickly it plans to ease policy further.

Geopolitical Tensions Add Support

Beyond macroeconomic factors, gold has also drawn support from rising geopolitical risks. Tensions have escalated in Venezuela after US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers, increasing pressure on Caracas amid an expanded American military presence in the region. Such developments often drive investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

Weekly Gains Keep Bulls Interested

At the time of writing, gold was up about 0.8% for the week, having edged higher by 0.1% in the latest session to around US$4,335.15 an ounce. While the metal remains below its all-time high of above US$4,381 set in October, its ability to stay near peak levels highlights continued investor appetite. With inflation easing, rate-cut expectations building, and global risks simmering, gold remains firmly in focus for markets watching whether another record run could be just around the corner

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