Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a positive start as the US and Iran agree to Halt Retaliatory Strikes.
• US markets ended the week on a subdued note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edging lower as AI and semiconductor shares came under pressure following reports that OpenAI could defer its IPO.
• Gold and crude oil prices advanced as geopolitical risks boosted demand for safe-haven assets and heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
• Sydney recorded its weakest weekend home auction clearance rate since 2020, while Volkswagen announced plans to cut approximately 100,000 jobs globally as part of a major restructuring program.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets ended mostly lower as investors assessed renewed Middle East tensions and continued pressure across technology shares. In the US, the S&P 500 slipped 0.05%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.24%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.09%, with weakness in AI and semiconductor stocks weighing on sentiment. European markets also closed lower, as the FTSE 100 dropped 0.21%, while Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite outperformed with a 0.37% gain. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell sharply by 4.15%, reflecting heavy selling across technology-related stocks, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 edged up 0.02%. The Indian market was closed on Friday.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets mostly traded higher as investors responded to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased demand for defensive assets. Gold rose 1.49% as safe-haven buying strengthened following the weekend escalation between the US and Iran, while silver also recorded solid gains. WTI crude oil advanced 2.56% amid concerns that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global energy supplies, although the subsequent agreement between the US and Iran to halt retaliatory strikes helped ease immediate fears. Uranium prices edged 0.55% higher, reflecting continued positive sentiment toward the nuclear energy sector, while copper declined 0.79% as concerns over slowing industrial demand weighed on base metals. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin slipped 0.71%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Bond Yields

Global bond markets were relatively stable, with only modest movements in benchmark government bond yields. Australia's 10-year government bond yield edged slightly lower, while Japan's 10-year yield declined as investors continued to favour safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield was broadly unchanged, while the 30-year Treasury yield recorded a marginal increase, indicating limited changes in long-term inflation and interest rate expectations. Overall, bond markets reflected a cautious investor stance as participants continued to assess developments in the Middle East, the outlook for global inflation, and the potential path of central bank monetary policy.Key Drivers

• Wall Street finished largely unchanged following another volatile session, with technology stocks remaining under pressure.
• Apple rose 3.1% and Microsoft gained 5.7%, recovering from the previous selloff linked to concerns over hardware price increases and rising memory costs.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield declined for a fourth straight session to 4.37%, its lowest level since 8 May.
• Semiconductor stocks remained under pressure after reports suggested OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, raising fresh concerns over AI infrastructure spending.
• US-Iran tensions escalated over the weekend before both sides agreed to halt retaliatory strikes and meet in Qatar on Wednesday.
• Oil markets remained in focus after attacks near the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions.
• Volkswagen plans to cut around 100,000 jobs and end production at four German plants as part of a major restructuring plan.
• Trump threatened a 100% tariff on countries imposing digital services taxes on US technology companies.
• US consumer sentiment improved to 49.5 in June from 44.8 in May, supported by lower petrol prices, though it remained historically weak.
• China's slowing industrial profit growth reinforced concerns about weaker domestic economic momentum.

ASX Company News

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: NEU) announced that its partner, Acadia Pharmaceuticals, has received a positive recommendation from the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) supporting the approval of DAYBU® (trofinetide) for treating neurobehavioral symptoms associated with Rett syndrome in patients aged five years and older. If the European Commission grants marketing approval, the therapy would become the first authorised treatment for this indication across the European Union. The approval would also trigger a US$35 million commercial milestone payment to Neuren, alongside ongoing royalty income and eligibility for additional sales-based milestone payments of up to US$170 million under its licensing agreement.
• HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC) secured approximately AU$1.35 billion in new institutional private credit mandates from two global institutional investors targeting the Australian commercial real estate lending market. The mandates include AU$375 million of seed loan commitments at financial close, with the remaining capital expected to be deployed during FY27. Upon full deployment, HMC Capital's private credit platform is expected to expand to around AU$3.3 billion in assets under management, supporting growth in fee-earning AUM, recurring funds management earnings and larger institutional lending opportunities.
• Select Harvests Limited (ASX: SHV) appointed Kristina Hermanson as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective 03 August 2026. Ms Hermanson brings more than 25 years of international agribusiness experience and most recently served as Head of APAC & Africa at Nuveen Natural Capital, where she managed approximately AU$3 billion in agricultural assets. She will succeed David Surveyor, who will step down on 31 July 2026 after three years as CEO.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• APA Group (ASX: APA) – Dividend of AU$0.305 per share.
• Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC) – Dividend of AU$0.258 per share.
• Dexus (ASX: DXS) – Dividend of AU$0.177 per share.
• Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) – Dividend of AU$0.150 per share.
• GPT Group (ASX: GPT) – Dividend of AU$0.122 per share.
• Stockland (ASX: SGP) – Dividend of AU$0.162 per share.
• Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) – Dividend of AU$0.048 per share.
• Growthpoint Properties Australia (ASX: GOZ) – Dividend of AU$0.092 per share.
• Region Group (ASX: RGN) – Dividend of AU$0.072 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Investors will closely monitor developments surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and upcoming diplomatic talks for any impact on global energy markets.
• Healthcare stocks may continue to outperform after the S&P 500 Healthcare sector extended its recent rally.
• Market participants will assess whether the recent sell-off in AI and semiconductor stocks creates buying opportunities or signals broader weakness in technology.
• Australia's property market will remain in focus after Sydney recorded its weakest weekend auction clearance rate since 2020.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a positive opening as the US and Iran agreed to halt retaliatory strikes and resume diplomatic talks.
• Healthcare continued to outperform, while gold miners gained on the back of higher gold prices and increased safe-haven buying.
• Reports that OpenAI could delay its IPO until 2027 continued to weigh on semiconductor stocks and broader AI-related sectors.
• Rising oil prices may support energy producers but could also increase inflation expectations if geopolitical tensions persist.
• Investors should monitor developments in global geopolitics, commodity prices and technology earnings for further market direction.

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