Headline

• ASX 200 futures point 22 points (-0.24%) lower amid weaker global sentiment.
• Brent crude surged above US$90 as renewed US-Iran strikes heightened supply concerns.
• S&P 500 fell 0.33%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.12% overnight.
• US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.75%, adding pressure on equities.
• September Fed rate-hike probability jumped to roughly 66% amid renewed inflation concerns.
• Wall Street finished August higher despite ending the final session broadly in the red.
• Higher oil prices and bond yields could keep Australian equities under pressure at the open.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets ended on a cautious note as geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on investor sentiment. Wall Street closed lower, with the Dow Jones recording the sharpest decline among the three major US benchmarks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also retreated, although losses moderated from earlier levels. Despite the weaker session, all three US benchmarks finished August with monthly gains, indicating that underlying risk appetite remained relatively resilient.Canadian equities also weakened, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across North American markets. Across Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei edged lower, while Indian equities also finished in negative territory amid cautious sentiment. New Zealand’s NZX 50 delivered a strong advance, outperforming several major global benchmarks. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 did not trade on Monday as UK markets were closed for the Summer Bank Holiday. Overall, global markets reflected a defensive tone as investors assessed geopolitical risks, energy-market pressures and the outlook for US monetary policy.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets were mixed, with energy prices showing the strongest momentum as geopolitical tensions increased concerns over global supply. WTI crude advanced sharply, leading gains across the commodity complex as investors assessed potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy flows. Copper also moved higher, supported by firmer demand expectations and improved sentiment toward industrial metals.Precious metals delivered a more subdued performance. Gold edged lower as rising bond yields reduced the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets, while silver recorded a modest gain and remained comparatively resilient. Uranium also softened during the session. In digital assets, Bitcoin advanced moderately, showing resilience despite a generally cautious tone across global risk markets. Overall, the session highlighted a divergence across asset classes, with geopolitical developments providing strong support to crude oil while higher yields created headwinds for gold. Industrial metals and cryptocurrencies remained relatively firm as investors continued to balance inflation risks, monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.Bond Yields

Global bond markets remained cautious as investors assessed persistent inflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty and the evolving monetary policy outlook. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield moved higher, keeping domestic borrowing costs elevated and potentially maintaining pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield remained elevated, reflecting continued uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory and domestic interest-rate expectations.In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield edged higher and remained above the 4.75% level, signalling continued market concern over inflation and the possibility of tighter monetary conditions. Higher energy prices could further complicate the inflation outlook and limit the Federal Reserve’s policy flexibility. Meanwhile, the US 30-year Treasury yield eased marginally but remained above 5%, indicating persistent longer-term rate pressures. Overall, elevated yields warrant a cautious stance, as sustained increases in borrowing costs could weigh on equity valuations, corporate financing conditions and broader risk appetite.Key Drivers

• US equities closed lower: S&P 500 fell 0.33%, Dow 0.70% and Nasdaq 0.12%.
• US Monthly Performance: The S&P 500 gained 2.62%, the Nasdaq advanced 3.93%, and the Dow rose 1.34% during August.
• Brent crude climbed above US$90 as renewed US-Iran hostilities raised supply-disruption concerns.
• US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island, marking the first acknowledged US strikes in a month.
• Iran retaliated with attacks on US bases in Jordan, escalating Middle East geopolitical risks.
• US 10-year Treasury yield reached around 4.75%, adding pressure to equity valuations.
• September Fed hike expectations rose sharply, with markets assigning around a 66% probability.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted elevated inflation, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive.
• Tesla surged 5.5% ahead of its 3 September Cybercab launch event.
• Nvidia committed US$3.5 billion to MediaTek, deepening cooperation around custom AI infrastructure.
• Eli Lilly agreed to acquire Merida Biosciences for up to US$2.88 billion, expanding its immunology pipeline.
• China’s manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August from 49.2, but remained in contraction.
• Australian company operating profits rose 1.8% in the June quarter, slightly below expectations.
• Australia’s monthly inflation gauge increased 0.5% in August, easing from July’s 1.0% rise.

ASX Company News

• Collins Foods Limited (ASX: CKF) reported record FY26 revenue from continuing operations of AU$1.59 billion, up 8.6%, while underlying EBITDA increased 6.3% to AU$244.5 million and underlying NPAT rose 13.0% to a record AU$61.4 million. Net operating cash flow reached AU$150.1 million, net debt declined to AU$119.6 million and the net leverage ratio improved to 0.77. The company declared a final fully franked dividend of 15 cents per share, taking the FY26 total dividend to 28 cents per share.
• GR Engineering Services Limited (ASX: GNG) secured an AU$50 million engineering, procurement and construction contract with Myamba Minerals, a wholly owned subsidiary of Medallion Metals Limited. The contract covers the design, procurement, construction and commissioning required to convert the existing Cosmic Boy Concentrator into a standalone facility capable of producing copper concentrate and gold doré. GR Engineering has already commenced early engineering work and ordered long-lead items for the project.
• Liontown Limited (ASX: LTR) entered a binding farm-in agreement with NEXT Lithium Corp. to earn up to a 100% interest in the Centenario lithium brine exploration project in Argentina. Liontown may fund US$40 million, approximately AU$56 million, of project expenditure over four years, alongside milestone payments. Initial consideration comprises US$5 million in cash and US$10 million in Liontown shares, while an initial US$15 million work program is planned over the first 12–24 months, potentially earning Liontown a 49% project interest.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (ASX: BEN) – AU$0.33
• Codan Limited (ASX: CDA) – AU$0.29
• Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited (ASX: DMP) – AU$0.325
• Earlypay Limited (ASX: EPY) – AU$0.002
• Endeavour Group Limited (ASX: EDV) – AU$0.012
• Fortescue Limited (ASX: FMG) – AU$0.46
• Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX: HLO) – AU$0.05
• HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC) – AU$0.06
• L1 Group Limited (ASX: L1G) – AU$0.02
• L1 Long Short Fund Limited (ASX: LSF) – AU$0.038
• Magellan Financial Group Limited (ASX: MFG) – AU$0.255
• Propel Funeral Partners Limited (ASX: PFP) – AU$0.069
• Stealth Group Holdings Limited (ASX: SGI) – AU$0.015
• Wesfarmers Limited (ASX: WES) – AU$1.20
• Woolworths Group Limited (ASX: WOW) – AU$0.52
• Worley Limited (ASX: WOR) – AU$0.25

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:30 am AEST – Australia Building Permits: Key gauge of housing construction activity and property-sector momentum.
• 11:45 am AEST – China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: Important read on manufacturing conditions and private-sector activity in China.
• 7:00 pm AEST – Eurozone Inflation Rate: Closely watched for inflation pressures and implications for the ECB’s rate outlook.
• 12:00 am AEST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Key indicator of US factory activity and broader economic momentum.
• 12:00 am AEST – US JOLTS Job Openings: Labour-demand data could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point 22 points lower, signalling a cautious start for Australian equities.
• Wall Street closed lower, with the Dow down 0.70%, S&P 500 0.33% and Nasdaq 0.12%.
• US equities recorded gains for August, with the Nasdaq leading the major benchmarks with a 3.93% monthly advance.
• Brent crude climbed above US$90 as renewed US-Iran tensions intensified supply concerns.
• US forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island, marking the first acknowledged strikes in a month.
• US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.75%, increasing pressure on equity valuations.
• September Fed hike probability climbed to around 66% amid renewed inflation concerns.
• WTI crude gained 3.49%, while gold slipped 0.27% amid higher bond yields.
• Tesla jumped 5.5% ahead of its 3 September Cybercab launch event.
• A cautious market stance remains appropriate as renewed US-Iran tensions, stronger energy prices and elevated bond yields heighten inflation concerns and create headwinds for global equity valuations.

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